The Transit Lounge

Gregory Altreuter 

General David Petraeus, the US commanding officer in Iraq, has presented his testimony to the American House of Representatives and Senate regarding the results of President Bush’s “surge”, now six months old. He has been questioned by the relevant committee members in each of the chambers and the results are what we were led to expect when George Bush was in Sydney, attending the APEC conference.

The surge, according to General Petraeus’s report, is working, albeit very slowly.

Once again, as we were in 2003, and most recently in the 2006 mid-term congressional elections, Americans are faced with having to make up their minds on what to do about Iraq, and, ultimately, what they believe about this war.

I am an American. I came to Australia in October 2002, and have since become a citizen.

There are many people who would not hesitate to claim that the case for the Iraq invasion was pretextual, and I distinctly recall George Bush’s first campaign for President, during which I was quickly convinced that he would take the U.S. to war with Iraq at the first opportunity. I was saddened and outraged to be proven right, mainly because I saw that the job begun in Afghanistan, in overthrowing the oppressive and criminal Taliban regime, and in locating and arresting Osama bin Laden, was not complete.

I didn’t believe the claims of weapons of mass destruction in Saddam Hussein’s hands, but was willing to give President Bush the benefit of the doubt, pending the results of the UN inspectors, lead by Hans Blix. But even as those results were becoming clear, the rush to war was underway, and now we, Americans and Australians, and all the other Coalition of the Willing participants, are left with having to face reality, one we’ve made.

Now, after four years in Iraq, and following the escalation — the “surge” — begun six months ago, we see Iraq in the midst of a civil war, where the role of the occupation forces (which was originally intended for peacekeeping during the reconstruction of essential infrastructure and services while a newly instituted democratic government could be formed) has become a third faction.

The US cannot choose between Shi’ite and Sunni and Kurd, and so long as al Qaeda and Iran and Syria continue to incite factionalism, Coalition forces serve mainly as lightning rods, drawing violence against themselves even as they try to root out the violent.

General Petraeus has briefed President Bush and Congress. His report can be read online at http://www.foreignaffairs.house.gov/110/pet091007.pdf, complete with graphs and charts illustrating the general’s claims, although the tables of hard figures aren’t included.  His testimony before Congress has been widely reported and analysed.

Essentially, his assessment of the surge results is that progress is being made, “slowly”, and more progress is possible, even to the desired outcome of a complete withdrawal, albeit subject to further review in another six months and most likely only after many years.

The opinions of Iraqis themselves are remarkably similar. Although senior figures in the Iraqi government have not long ago called for the U.S. to leave, they, too, foresee the need for a continued large-scale troop presence. While the majority of Iraqis believe that the results of the surge itself have been negative, decreasing the safety of their neighbourhoods, the prospect of a swift and complete departure is dismaying, to say the least.

“They are waiting for the opportunity, just waiting for the opportunity to eat one another”, one Iraqi is reported as saying, referring to the Shi’ia and Sunni factions whose factional violence has been reduced, according to Petraeus’s findings.

The commentariat, journalists, bloggers, various pundits, all come down on one side or the other of the withdrawal question, depending on their own political leanings. There is little unbiased reporting to be found, including in the Petraeus report, which, while ostensibly unbeholden to the President’s persuasion, hardly presents a strategic analysis of the situation.

So what do we believe? Who do we believe? How can we make up our minds? More immediately, with the prospect of a Federal election in the offing, where a significant platform distinction between Liberal and Labor is the withdrawal Australian forces from Iraq, what direction is right for Australia?

Labor promises a troop withdrawal, and the Liberals claim that this would endanger Australia, abrogate a moral responsibility to Iraq, and seriously damage both Australia’s relationship with America and America’s prestige and ability to stand between the terrorists and their targets.

General Petraeus tells us the Iraqis are not ready to take up the security of their own country, and the Iraqis say the same. The Iraq Study Group, a non-partisan committee formed last year to assess the situation, prior to the “surge”, told us that only a phased withdrawal, begun immediately, would provide Iraq with the impetus necessary to take on that responsibility.

The invasion of Iraq has raised many questions and established numerous misunderstandings and myths. Even now, a significant number of Americans believe that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction, and although they have never been found, some believe they were. Similarly, many people believe Iraq was complicit in the September 11 attacks. And now that four years of occupation have produced only civil war, many people believe the Colin Powell “Pottery Barn” doctrine: if you break it, you have to fix it. George Bush partisans argue that “fighting the terrorists there so we don’t have to fight them at home” is what’s needed in the post-September 11 world. They believe that we are in a clash of civilisations, and that there can only be one “winner”.

President Bush chose to take American to war in Iraq, and John Howard chose to have Australia join him. We chose our leaders, and even after 2003 chose them again.  America will have a new Presidential election in November 2008, and so far it looks like the Congressional Democratic majority will be joined by a Democratic executive. Labor is polling far ahead of the Liberals in advance of the announcement of an election, which many here believe is likely to be called for November. With General Petraeus’s report in hand, with everything we know, we have an unprecedented chance to remake the world.  How it changes is up to us, now more than ever.

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